When our partnership has discovered an eight-card or longer major suit fit, most of the time the only issue is how high in our major are we going to go—partscore, game or slam. When we have a fit in a minor, however, or there is no clear eight card or longer fit, there is a choice between the minor and notrump. But when game is the target, all experienced players understand the mantra: think 3NT first, think 3NT first and after that, think 3NT first.
Danger Suits for 3NT
To seriously entertain a contract of 3NT, however, we must be prepared for the suit or suits we most expect the opponents to lead. There. I just said it: the danger suit is the suit we most expect them to lead. (And, yes, there can be more than one danger suit.) To bid notrump, particularly 2NT or 3NT, we should have stoppers in the perceived danger suits.
When Opponents Haven't Bid
When it’s just your side that's bidding, the danger suit is any and all unbid suits: For example:
9 4
A Q 7 4 3
K J 8 7
K 9
Suppose we open 1
. Partner responds 2
and we rebid 2
. If partner then raises to 3
, bidding 3NT with two low spades would be reckless, because spades is the danger suit—the suit we most expect them to lead. You hold
K J 6
10 2
A K 3 2
Q 8 7 6
If partner opens the bidding with 1
, it would be a simple matter to respond 3NT (13-15 hcp, no four-card major), but it would be wrong and reckless. The danger suits here are the unbid suits, particularly the majors. Remember, the opponents know that you don't have four hearts or four spades, so they are very likely to lead one of them. Two low hearts is a big risk for notrump, so bid 1
instead and see how the auction develops. If partner suggets she has a heart stopper, then off we go to notrump land. If she doesn't, then we have to consider 5
or 5
.
When Opponents Have Bid
Suppose our partner opens 1
and our rho overcalls 2
. Holding
10
A K 6 4 3
A Q 8 2
9 7 2
we naturally bid 2
. Partner rebids 2
and now what? 3NT, the clubs be damned! The danger suit here is diamonds, the suit we most expect them to lead. We expect a diamond lead, so we can proceed to 3NT. And what of the clubs? Don't worry, be happy.
What happens if we are worried about a danger suit? What do we do? Well, it all depends on how many danger suits there are. If there is only one danger suit and we bid that suit, we are not showing a stopper—such a bid asks partner if she has a stopper. If there are two danger suits, however, and we bid one of them, we are showing a stopper in that suit and are implicitly asking partner to bid notrump if she has a stopper in the other danger suit.
To keep all this straight, I've developed the silly-sounding rhyme
1-NOT, 2-GOT
which means that if there is one danger suit and we bid that suit, we're
NOT showing a stopper. But if there are two danger suits and we bid one of them, we're bidding the stopper we've
GOT. Examples:

8 5

A Q 2

A K 9 5 4 3

Q 7 4
| Opp |
You |
Opp |
Partner |
1 |
2 |
Pass |
3 |
| Pass |
3 |
|
|

the unbid suits. if we were to bid 3NT here—
a big mistake—we would be shocked if they led hearts or diamonds. No, the’re going to lead spades or clubs. So a bid of 3
is showing the stopper you’ve GOT. If partner has the club stopper, she can bid 3NT. If she can’t, I guess we’ll head toward 5
or maybe 4
on a 5-2 fit.
A Q 10 3
7 4
A K 6 2
K 9 8
| Opp |
You |
Opp |
Partner |
1 |
dbl |
Pass |
3 |
| Pass |
3 |
|
|
An example of 1-NOT. there is only one danger suit—hearts. So we bid 3

to ask partner for a stopper. We are
not showing a stopper, since if we had a heart stopper and wanted to play in notrump, we would just bid 3NT directly.
8 5
A 10 2
A K Q 7 6
7 6 5
| Partner |
Opp |
You |
Opp |
1 |
Pass |
2 |
Pass |
2 |
Pass |
3 |
|
Here, 3NT would be reckless. The clear danger suit is clubs, so it’s a 1-NOT situation. 3
is not showing a stopper. If you had a club stopper and you wanted to play 3NT, you would just bid 3NT. This situation is also part of what’s known as fourth-suit forcing. In any event, for partner to bid 3NT, she needs to have the club stopper.2
Notes
1This article first appeared in the ACBL Bulletin, December 2004, and is used here with kind permission of the author and publisher.
2Mel Colchamiro's books and bridge resources are available at his web site www.melbridge.com.